Bernie Sanders Vs. The Establishment

bernieThe race continues between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, with both Democratic candidates topping Donald Trump in polls for the general election. Even though Clinton has won more delegates thus far, Sanders is the most favorably viewed candidate in general. He has a favorability rating of 60 percent among all registered voters, while 59 percent have a negative view of Trump and 53 percent have a negative view of Clinton. However, if Bernie Sanders is so well liked, why has he only accumulated 427 delegates versus Clinton’s 1,052? Why are Bernie Sanders’ betting odds +1,000 versus Hillary Clinton’s -2,500?

Part of it may have to do with the fact that many Sanders supporters might not be registered voters, or they have not turned out in large numbers to the primaries. Hillary was already a shoo-in in South Carolina, where she enjoys overwhelming support from that state’s large African-American population. The most important factor, however, is the fact that a huge number of Sanders supporters are registered independents, who in most states cannot vote in primaries. The fact that three of the five states where Sanders has won have open primaries backs up this claim.

Sanders could end up running as a third-party candidate, and many people would vote for him. He certainly has enough supporters to make an independent run viable. However, there is always a problem with running as a third party. He could end up pulling away a large number of Democratic voters, thereby guaranteeing a Republicans victory. However, many people still love the senator from Vermont, but those people are going to have to be proactive and go out and vote. How many Sanders supporters will go out of their way to change their party affiliation from Independent to Democrat in order to voter for Sanders? This will be key for Sanders to win the nomination.

Of all the political odds stacked against Bernie Sanders, his biggest problem may be the way the media has portrayed him as already dead in the water. Most of the media coverage is about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. This all makes sense when you consider that Sanders’ campaign started on the grassroots level and was never really a part of the mainstream media to begin with. Moreover, Sanders is not interested in always being in the spotlight. His campaign is not based on photo ops and soundbites, which is how an American president is elected these days. There is also a perception of mainstream Democrats that Sanders will not be able to win the general election, and if he does, that he will not be able to get anything done.

Even Democrats who like Bernie Sanders question how he can fulfill his campaign promises of free tuition and healthcare for all. They claim that he talks in generalities and has not laid out specific plans of how he is going to achieve his goals. Another problem is that if by chance he does get the nomination, Republican attack ads will hammer home the dirty “S” word every chance they get. They will run ads calling him a socialist, a communist, or worse, and they will create the perception in the public’s mind that Sanders’ policies are anti-American. Unfortunately, most American do not know there is a difference between a socialist and democratic socialist. In the end, it is surely possible that Sanders could beat Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in the general election. The problem right now for Bernie is winning the nomination in the first place.