Vegas Betting Odds For The 2016 Presidential Election
The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election is slated to take place on November 8th, 2016 however there are already odds for who will win the 2016 Presidential Election available for wagering from online sportsbooks. This would be because no single day will influence the path of the nation as much as electing a new commander in chief to lead our country.
With the election being just over a year away, we still have no idea of who will be on the ticket for any of the parties... the only thing that we do know is that President Barack Obama will not be able to seek a third term and therefore we will have a new leader following the 58th Presidential Election.
Below, we'll do our best to speculate who might be in position to win nomination, but with over one year to the next election, anything can and probably will change. Right now we have people like Donald Trump officially running for president, so who knows what the next few months will bring. We will also include other useful info about the voting process, how to register to vote, as well as info on how to bet on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and all the political betting odds that will be available leading up to the big day. Please use the links below to quickly navigate the different sections.
Latest Presidential Odds:The 2016 race for the presidency is well under way, and the surprises just keep on coming. So far, only the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary have taken place. The next primaries are in Nevada and South Carolina. At this point, the main players still in the running are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in the Democratic camp, and Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and John Kasich on the Republican side. Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders, but only by .3 percent of a point. Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump and Marco Rubio by about three percentage points. The New Hampshire primary painted a much different picture. Sanders beat Clinton by 22 percentage points, and Donald Trump maintained an impressive 20 percent lead over the rest of the pack.
At this time, Hillary Clinton is still the front-runner to win both the Democratic nomination (-400) and the presidency (-120). However, Bernie Sanders has a lot of momentum going right now, thanks to his many individual donors and supporters. He has been very successful in mounting a grassroots campaign largely supported by young college-age voters. His odds are currently +300 to win the Democratic nomination and +550 to win the presidency. This is quite an improvement compared to a month ago. Last, and, definitely least, is Martin O’Malley, who scored a whopping 0.6 percent of the vote. You can count on his announcement of resignation pretty soon.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is predicted to be the GOP nominee with odds of +125, putting him slightly ahead of rivals Marco Rubio (+275), Ted Cruz (+450), and Jeb Bush (+550). Keep in mind, though, that the Republican race is very close, which explains why none of the GOP candidates is a full-on favorite to win. Currently, Trump has slightly better odds to win the nomination, but his odds to become the next POTUS are +400 compared with Hillary Clinton’s -120. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio could very well get the nomination. Although Trump has many supporters, Rubio is a much safer choice. If Trump does not win the GOP nomination, he may very well run as a third-party candidate, pulling a large chunk of Republican voters with him and thereby damning the party.
There has only been one primary and one caucus thus far, so you can bet that things are going to get much more intense as the weeks and months go by. Next up, we have the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary. As the season progresses, remember that the odds will be frequently updated. This will help you to bet smart. Since the election is still almost a year away, political wagering is considered futures betting. You can bet on all kinds of things besides who’s going to win the election. Prop bets are abundant. These include things like Hillary Clinton versus the entire field, Donald Trump versus the field, which party will win the presidency, etc. Keep checking this page for the latest news and updates.
2016 U.S. Presidential Betting Odds as found at Bovada on Febuary 12th, 2016 - Click Screenshot To Bet
It is very hard to say who may seek election in 2016 until at least 24 months before the 2016 General Election however we can speculate. Below, we have some up and coming stars in both parties plus some names you definitely already know. Again, this is all based on nothing that is concrete and there is a chance that nobody we list will actually seek nomination from their party.
Bernie Sanders - The Senator from Vermont was born in 1941 in New York. He went to Brooklyn College and later the University of Chicago. He became actively involved in the civil rights movement and other progressive causes. In 1981, he became mayor Burlington, Vermont and was re-elected three more times. Sanders became a member of the US House of Representatives in 1990, running as an independent. While serving, he criticized members of both the Democratic and Republicans, and was a staunch opponent of the Iraq War. He became a Senator in 2006, and also served on several committees, including the Joint Economic Committee and the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs. As a presidential hopeful, he has galvanized a large support group of progressive democrats and independents, and even a few conservatives.
Update 2/11/16 - Bernie Sanders continues to impress as election season gets under way. His popularity on the left is as surprsing as Donald Trump's is on the right. Sanders no doubt speaks to disenchanted voters who want a real change. While he lost to Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucus, he absolutely decimated her in the New Hampshire primary. Fun fact: Western Illinois University has successfully predicted every president since 1975 in their mock election, and they predict that Bern Sanders will be the next POTUS. Currently, his odds are +250 to be the Democratic nominee and +400 to be president.
Hillary Clinton - Wife of former President Bill Clinton, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton is the current Secretary of State in the US, a position she assumed office of in 2009 under Barack Obama. From almost a decade as the First Lady of Arkansas to the First Lady of the United States through two Bill Clinton administration’s, Hillary Clinton has always had a strong personal identity. She continued her political career as United States Senator from New York (the first time that a former US First Lady had held public office) before taking up her current position in the White House. A graduate of Yale Law School, she remains many people’s favourite to become the first female President of the United States.
Update 2/11/16 - The oddsmakers predict that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and quite likely also the next president. However, recently she has been feeling the burn in the early primaries. In New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders beat her 60.4 percent to 38 percent. Although she beat Bernie in Iowa, it was by such a narrow margin that it could hardly be called a victory. Hillary desperately wants to be the next president, but Sanders is presenting quite a challenge. Clinton's odds are still the best of any candidate running on either side though: -400 to be the Democratic nominee and even odds to be the next president.
Donald Trump - When you first thought about who would be the next President of The United States you probably did not think that Mr. Trump would be part of it. Well, the betting odds for Donald Trump to be the next president are at 25/1, which is tied for the 6th favorite according to Vegas. Trump is a real estate mogul in New York City and has been on the Forbes list multiple times. Him getting elected would mean some major changes in the world of politics, some of which are probably needed. However, I am not sure if we can have a president that offends almost everyone.
Update 2/11/16 - Just when you think he's about to fall flat on his face, he surprises everyone. Trump is now the frontrunner to win the GOP presidential nomination, with odds of -150. His odds to become the next president, however, are +275. Let's not understimate him anymore, though. Everyone has done so thus far and look how popular he is. It may be a good idea to start coming to terms with the fact that Donald Trump could be our next president. Which is either the best thing or the worst thing in the world, depending on your point of view. The mere fact that he's so divisive, though, makes many moderate folks a little nervous.
John Kasich - John Richard Kasich was born on May 13, 1952 in McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania. He graduated from Ohio State University in 1974 with Bachelor of Arts degree in political science. In 1978, when he was only 28, Kasich became a Senator in Ohio. He was the youngest ever Ohio senator. One of the first things he did in office was refuse a pay raise. Kasich served in the Ohio House of Representatives from 1983 to 2001. A fiscal conservative, he worked with Ralph Nader to close tax loopholes for corporations. He served on the House Armed Service Committee for 18 years, and later was chairman of the House Budget Committee. He has also worked as a Fox News host and has written three books.
Update 2/11/16 - John Kasich's odds have improved a little bit since the New Hampshire primary. Before, he was in a three-way tie for last with Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. After finishing second in New Hampshire, he is now slightly ahead of Jeb Bush in the race fof the presidency. His odds to be the Republican nominee are +1,000. His odds to become the next POTUS are +2,000. Not great, but getting a little better.
Ted Cruz - Ted Cruz was born Rafael Edward Cruz in Calgary, Canada on December 22, 1970. His father was a Cuban immigrant who came to America in the 1950s. He graduated from Princeton University in 1992 and later went to Harvard Law School. Before he got into politics, he was a law clerk for Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist. He worked as a lawyer for a while, and then as a campaign advisor to George W. Bush. In 2003, he became the Solicitor General of Texas. He won a seat in the United States Senate in 2012. During his time in Congress, he has sponsored 25 bills of his own. He is known for his very conservative evangelical viewpoint.
Update 2/11/16 - Ted Cruz is doing okay at this point. He isn't a shoo-in, but then again, in this race none of the candidates are. He beat Donald Trump in the Iowa caucus, securing 27.6 percent of the vote. In the New Hampshire primary, however, he came in third, with only 11.7 percent of the vote. His brand of evangelical conservatism will play better in more rural and Southern states, so we'll just have to wait and see how he fares in upcoming primaries. Currently, his odds to be the Republican nominee are +600, and his odds to become the next president are +1,600.
Chris Christie - Born in New Jersey in 1962, the incumbent Governor of New Jersey declined the chance of becoming a Presidential nomination for the Republican party in 2012, simply to concentrate on his job as state governor. Christie is an attorney, once working for the District of New Jersey after being nominated by Geroge W Bush, an office which he held from December 2002 to 2008. The University of Delaware Alma mater assumed office as the 55th Governor of New Jersey in 2010.
Update 2/11/16 - After failing to win any delegates in the New Hampshire primary or the Iowa caucus, it looks as if whatever steam Christie once had is finally running out. Don't count on Christie to make much of an impact from here going forward as reports have him suspending his campaign before next weeks primary in South Carolina.
Martin O'Malley - In 2006, O’Malley was elected as the Governor of Maryland, taking office in 2007. His work prior to that has seen him serve as the Mayor of Baltimore, where, during his tenure he was named “The Best Young Mayor in the Country” by Esquire magazine. The 49 year old has also served time as a Baltimore City Councilor and currently holds position as Chair of the Democratic Governors Association. O’Malley, who was born in Washington DC, is an attorney who has long been linked with national political ambitions.
Update 2/11/16 - After a poor showing in Iowa Governor O'Malley dropped out of the race. Look For him to be on the short list of VP candidates when the nomination has been won.
Marco Rubio - The 41 year old is Florida’s representative in the United States Senate, after taking office there in 2011. Florida born and raised, Rubio spent time as a Member of the Florida House of Representatives before gaining the honourable position of Speaker of the House. A graduate of the University of Florida and the University of Miami Law School, the lawyer had been touted as a candidate for Vice President in the Republican’s 2012 Election campaign, but Rubio stated that he was not interested.
Update 2/11/16 - Although he has not done terribly well in either the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary, Rubio’s odds to win the GOP nomination and/or become president are not bad. They are +300 to be the Republican nominee and +750 to be the next president. Rubio has the second-best odds after Donald Trump.
Jeb Bush - John Ellis “Jeb” Bush was born in1953 in Midland, Texas. He is the son of former President George H.W. Bush and the younger sibling of former president George W. Bush. Jeb spent his childhood in Houston, TX. He went to school at the University of Texas, where he got a degree Latin American Affairs. He got his start in politics by helping with his dad’s campaign in 1980. At this time, he was involved in real estate development. He served as Florida’s Secretary of Commerce for two years. In 1998, Bush beat Democrat Buddy McKay to become Governor of Florida. He won re-election in 2002. He has been active in politics ever since he left office.
Update 2/11/16 - Of the Republican candidates who are still in the race, Jeb Bush’s chances of winning the GOP nomination are the worst. Jeb’s been struggling to connect with voters. No matter how hard he tries, he just can’t seem to inspire people. His recent campaign slogan, “Jeb can fix it,” seem too little and too late. And it’s always a bad sign when you have to remind your audience to clap. His odds of securing the nomination are +1200, and his odds of winning the presidency are +2,500.
Carly Fiorina - Carly Fiorina was born in 1954 in Austin, Texas. She went to Stanford University where she got a degree in philosophy and medieval history. She then went to MIT, where she graduated with a Master’s in Business Administration and Master of Science in management. She worked for several large companies, but her biggest claim to fame was being the CEO of Hewlett-Packard. During her time running the company, she oversaw the merger between HP and Compaq, which turned out to be a disaster. Under Fiorina’s reign, the company ended up laying off 30,000 workers. After the company’s stock value declined, she was ousted.Update 2/11/16 - Carly Fiorina might as well just call it quits right now, but for some reason she keeps holding on to the false hope that she can win the presidency. At this point, Fiorina is not even on the oddsmakers' radar at all. She got a paltry 1.9 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucus, and 4.1 percent in New Hampshire.
Joe Biden - Born Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr, he is currently holding office as the 47th Vice President of the United State under the Barack Obama administration. Biden has been in office in 2009 following almost a decade serving as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. The big political career all started back in 1973 for Biden when he took office as the United States Senator for Delaware. A University of Delaware graduate, the 69 year old was elected for a second term in the Vice Presidency in 2012.
Update 2/11/16 - Biden already announced he would not be running for president, but it's not impossible that he could change his mind. What would be the point, though? He said himself that he didn't think he could win. Most importantly, it's going to be tough to compete with a smart and determined woman like Hillary Clinton and a passionate and popular maverick like Bernie Sanders for your party's nomination. Currently, the oddsmakers don't seem too concerned with Joe Biden.
Michael Bloomberg - Michael Rubens Bloomberg was born in Boston on February 14, 1942. He went to Johns Hopkins University and Harvard Business School. In 1966, he graduated with a Master’s degree in business administration. He worked on Wall Street with Salomon Brothers until they were bought out in 1981. He then started his own company, Bloomberg L.P. This made him one of the wealthiest people in the world. He became interested in philanthropy, focusing his attention on education, the arts, and medical research. In 2002, Bloomberg became the 108th Mayor of New York. Even though he considers himself a Republican, he is pro-gay marriage and pro-abortion. He was re-elected in 2005 and again in 2009.
Update 2/11/16 - Although Michael Bloomberg has been talking about running for president, his odds to are very slim (+2,500). At this point, Bloomberg has not formally announced that he is running. He may run as an independent candidate, but whether or not he will be able to make much of a dent in the race is up for debate. Consider the media attention being focused on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. How can Michael Bloomberg expect voters to pay attention to him with these two egomaniacs hogging the spotlight?
Rand Paul - Self titled ‘Constitutional Conservative’ Paul, is the incumbent US Senator representing Kentucky. Paul, a resident of Bowling Green, assumed the office in January of 2011 in the Senate following national attention back in 2008. Paul came to the limelight when supporting his father, Ron Paul, a Republican presidential candidate in 2012. The 49 year old made speeches for his father, but he has also gained recognition in his political career for taking independent standpoints on issues as well.
Paul Ryan - 42 year old Ryan, born in Janesville, Wisconsin and a graduate of Miami University, was Mitt Romney’s running mate for the 2012 Presidential Election. Ryan currently holds the position as House Budget Committee Chairman and assumed office as the United States Representative for Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district in 1999. Ryan has a long history of speechwriting for political figures throughout his career, and is known for his budget reformations regarding healthcare in the United States.
Andrew Cuomo - Son of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, the New York native took office as the 56th Governor of New York in 2011. He has a long political career and worked at the White House during the Bill Clinton Administration. A lawyer by trade, Cuomo worked as the Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development before moving on to become the 11th US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Cuomo, who is of Italian heritage, was the Attorney General of New York for four years between 2007 and 2010.
Deval Patrick - Being the 71st Governor of Massachusetts, Patrick was preceded by Mitt Romney in that office. Born in Illinois in 1956, and a graduate of Harvard University and Harvard Law School, Patrick took office as the Governor in 2007, after a being an underdog in the race. He has experience of working in the White House, as he was part of the Bill Clinton administration, serving as Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Rights Division of the United States. Patrick became the first African-American Governor of Massachusetts.
Mark Warner - The Indiana native is the United States Senator from Virginia, and is likely to step up to the Senior Senator position in 2013. He withdrew himself from being a Presidential Candidate in the 2008 elections for the Democratic party so as not to take time away from his family. A graduate of Harvard and working as a telecommunications executive he became incumbent in the Senate for Virginia in 2009, three years after the end of his tenure as the 69th Governor of Virginia.
Rob Portman - A strong Ohio political figure, Portman served in the United States House of Representatives for twelve years, taking seven congressional electoral victories in a row. In 2010, the Cincinnati born Portman took office as the junior United States Senator for Ohio. Portman served the presidency of George W Bush as White House Counsel, Chief Counsel and holding positions as Trade Representative and Director of Management and Budget in his career. Portman had been strongly considered as a Vice President for the Republican’s 2012 election campaign.
Bob McDonnell - Born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the 58 year old is the incumbent Governor of Virginia, a role he has held since January 2010. McDonnell comes from a military background, having served as a lieutenant colonel in the US Army. His first major public-serving office was at the Virginia House of Delegates from where he moved on to become the Attorney General of Virginia, a post he held for four years between 2006 and 2009.
Odds To Be The Next President Of The United States - Updated 1-17-16
We became very astute in all the ways to bet on who will be the next President of the United States of America back in 2012 and leading up to that election. Below, we'll break down common ways to bet on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and what you might encounter when looking for the odds.
Odds To Win Electoral Vote - By far, this is the most common type of Presidential wager. This bet will simply ask who will be the next President/winner of the election. Until the candidates or potential candidates for each political party are known, these odds will likely only cover whether the Democrats or the Republicans win control over the White House. These odds were available the day after the 2012 Presidential Election for the 2016 election... we've covered these odds on this page. And, just like any wager made with a sportsbook or online bookmaker, it will be handicapped however since there is only a winner and a loser, the wager is handicapped through payouts and the amount won with a single dollar wagered.
Handicapped Electoral Vote Count - This type of betting should be familiar for anyone that knows about betting on sports. When the electoral vote count is handicapped, it is just like a spread on a football game, basketball games, etc... Basically, the handicapped vote count will dictate the margin of electoral votes a candidate will need to win/lose by in order to win the wager. We mentioned Obama beat Romney by 126 electoral votes for which his handicapped line was 90.5 electoral votes. By winning by 91 or more votes, Obama won both the election as well as the wager for those who took the bet. It is unlikely to see this line until the weeks/days before the 2016 election.
Over/Under Electoral Vote Count - Another bet that is very similar to a sports wager... the over/under wager on the electoral vote count is done on a candidate by candidate basis and it simply asks whether Candidate A will get more or less than a predetermined number of Electoral College votes. This predetermined amount will be different for each candidate based on his/her outlook for the upcoming election. Sometimes the over/under is handicapped through payouts to a single dollar wager because the difference in one state could potentially be as many as 55 electoral votes. Again, this wager usually isn't available until a week or two before the election.
Odds To Win Popular Vote - This works just like the odds to win the election however winning the Electoral College and winning the popular vote are two completely different things mainly because you can win the popular vote but not the election. Still, odds for the popular vote are presented in the same format where either Candidate A or Candidate B wins. And without a spread/handicap, each side of the wager pays differently when a single dollar is wagered on one side versus the other. Look for the 2016 popular vote odds to become available within a month of the election date.
Odds To Win A Particular Swing State - As we talked about previously, one state can make or break a campaign and therefore there is a lot of attention placed on particular states which could go either way... Democrat or Republican. Each election is different but typically these wager revolve on bigger states which can actually impact the race significantly. Each state has different odds for Democrats or Republicans based on past elections, current polling, and registered voters in the state. Perhaps the best example of this wager was Florida in 2012 where Mitt Romney was better than a 2 to 1 favorite to win the state's 29 electoral votes. Well, President Obama won Florida in 2012 thus winning a good chunk of money for anyone who bet on him to win the state because he was the underdog and a single dollar wager payed more than what was bet plus the original amount risked. Because so much goes into figuring out which way a state might go, or even if there is a possibility of it swinging to one side or the other, odds for swing states are not available until right before the election.
Political Primary Odds - Leading up to 2016 there will be a lot of campaigning within both of the major political parties for nomination to be the next President of the United States. With that comes betting odds on each party's primaries in big states where it is not already known who will be selected to represent the party in the upcoming Presidential Election. Back in 2012, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney went head-to-head for several weeks for the Republican nomination until Santorum finally bowed out, clearing the way for Romney to seek election. In 2016, both parties will be selecting a nominee so the action should be much more intense than in 2012. Look for odds to win state primaries starting in 2015.
We're pretty sure most of you know how the election process works however if you do not, we encourage you to keep reading this section. We're going to cover some basic material which will help you better understand our (the U.S.) electoral process.
Electoral College vs. Popular Vote
The first thing you need to know is that the popular vote has no bearing on the outcome of the election meaning that it is totally possible for one candidate to get more votes than his/her competitor but still not win the election. This is because the United States uses the Electoral College which assigns a specific number of votes to each state based on that state's population. The number of electoral votes a particular state has is based on the number of members in Congress... every state has two senators and a varying number of representatives in the U.S. House of Representatives. Here are a few of the bigger states and their electoral vote counts: California (55), Texas (38), Florida (29), New York (29), Illinois (20). At the time of this writing, there are a total of 538 Electoral College votes of which 270 is needed for a majority and to win the presidency.
In the 2012 Presidential Election when Barack Obama won a second term over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, he did so with an electoral vote count of 332 to 206. The popular vote in that election was much closer than what the Electoral College would lead you to believe. While Obama won 61.71% of the electoral votes, his margin in the popular vote was much smaller... right around 50.5% versus Mitt Romney's 48.0% with the remaining percentage going to various third-party political parties i.e. Green, Reform, Tea, etc... The result of this election was much closer than some believed and as always the entire race came down to a few swing states like Ohio which tipped the balance in favor of the incumbent. But while the end results are clear, there was much speculation that Obama could potentially lose the popular vote and still retain office. That never came to be but it was still very close and with a few more precincts, a few more counties, a few more states, Mitt Romney could have very well taken the White House from Obama in 2012. Could have, would have, should have...
Who Can Vote In 2016?
Each state handles it's own voter's registration so we are unable to provide just one universal link that will take you to where you can register. Our best advice would be to do a Google search, or whatever search engine your prefer, for "(state you live in) voter registration" which should produce a list of links with information on where/how/when to register to vote. These should all be state-run websites. If you come across a site with a domain name such as "TennesseeVoterRegistration.com", it's probably not affiliated with the state at all. Below is a basic list of requirements that need to be met in order to register:
- Be A United States Citizen
- Be A Resident Of The State In Which You Are Residing/Trying To Register
- Be At Least 18 Years Old (some states allow early registration however voting is not allowed until 18 years of age)
- Must Not Have Been Convicted Of A Felony In Which Your Civil Rights Were Revoked
- Must Have Current & Correct Identification
Remember, each state runs it's own voter's registration so there may be additional requirements that are not listed here. Do know that you must be registered to vote for at least 29 days before you are allowed to vote in an election... so, figuring 2 weeks for processing, the cutoff to register to vote in the 2016 Presidential Election would be right around late September in 2016. Most states allow residents to get their voter's registration started online which is a real plus to making sure things are done ahead of time.
Where Can I Vote In 2016?
That information will be given to you once you have registered to vote. You will receive a voter's registration card with information about your voting precinct. And, just because you voted at a particular polling station in one election does not mean that is where you will vote for the next election. Precinct boundaries are always being re-drawn to benefit whichever party is in office so your precinct can and probably will change at some point. When it does, you will be sent a new registration card complete with your new polling information. You want to be sure to keep your address current otherwise you will probably fail to get notice of any change and be denied the right to vote if you show up at the wrong precinct. There are several resources online which can help you locate your polling station which will be made available as we approach the Presidential Election in 2016.